| Baltimore, Maryland |
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| 5 Year Home and Rent Correction |
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* BH = Bach Half (Jul 1 - Dec 31) |
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* FH = Front Half (Jan 1 - Jun 30) |
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| Assumptions |
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Spread of Correction |
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| Use Provided Home Price? Yes/No |
Yes |
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2007 BH |
15.0% |
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| June 2007 Price |
600,000 |
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2008 |
40.0% |
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| Inflation Rate |
3.0% |
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2009 |
27.5% |
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| Mortgage Rate |
6.5% |
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2010 |
10.0% |
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| Years Fixed |
30 |
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2011 |
5.0% |
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| Home Correction Component |
-27.8% |
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2012 FH |
2.5% |
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| Rental Correction Component |
11.3% |
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Should Equal 100% Missing 0.0% |
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| Price/Rent Ratio |
20.70 |
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| Home Price Change |
2007 BH |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 FH |
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| Beginning Price |
565,000 |
541,450 |
478,650 |
435,475 |
419,775 |
411,925 |
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| Percent of Correction |
-4.17% |
-11.12% |
-7.64% |
-2.78% |
-1.39% |
-0.69% |
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| Current Year Correction |
(23,550) |
(62,800) |
(43,175) |
(15,700) |
(7,850) |
(3,925) |
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| Ending Price |
541,450 |
478,650 |
435,475 |
419,775 |
411,925 |
408,000 |
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| Monthly Mortgage Payment |
(3,422) |
(3,025) |
(2,752) |
(2,653) |
(2,604) |
(2,579) |
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| Rent Change |
2007 BH |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 FH |
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| Beginning Price |
(2,275) |
(2,313) |
(2,416) |
(2,487) |
(2,513) |
(2,525) |
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| Percent of Correction |
1.70% |
4.52% |
3.11% |
1.13% |
0.57% |
0.28% |
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| Current Year Appreciation |
(39) |
(103) |
(71) |
(26) |
(13) |
(6) |
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| Ending Price |
(2,313) |
(2,416) |
(2,487) |
(2,513) |
(2,525) |
(2,532) |
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| Price/Rent Ratio |
19.51 |
16.51 |
14.59 |
13.92 |
13.59 |
13.43 |
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| 15-year Average P/R Ratio |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
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| Home Correction Remaining |
-24.6% |
-14.8% |
-6.3% |
-2.8% |
-1.0% |
0.0% |
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| Rent Correction Remaining |
9.5% |
4.8% |
1.8% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
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| Home Price Change (Inflation Adjusted) |
2007 BH |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 FH |
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| Beginning Price |
565,000 |
549,572 |
501,375 |
471,946 |
469,933 |
475,946 |
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| Percent of Correction |
-4.17% |
-11.12% |
-7.64% |
-2.78% |
-1.39% |
-0.69% |
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| Current Year Correction |
(23,550) |
(62,800) |
(43,175) |
(15,700) |
(7,850) |
(3,925) |
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| Ending Price |
541,450 |
486,772 |
458,200 |
456,246 |
462,083 |
472,021 |
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| Inflation Adjustment |
8,122 |
14,603 |
13,746 |
13,687 |
13,862 |
14,161 |
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| Inflation Adjusted End Price |
549,572 |
501,375 |
471,946 |
469,933 |
475,946 |
486,181 |
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| Monthly Mortgage Payment |
(3,474) |
(3,169) |
(2,983) |
(2,970) |
(3,008) |
(3,073) |
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| Rent Change (Inflation Adjusted) |
2007 BH |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 FH |
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| Beginning Price |
(2,275) |
(2,348) |
(2,524) |
(2,673) |
(2,780) |
(2,876) |
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| Percent of Correction |
1.70% |
4.52% |
3.11% |
1.13% |
0.57% |
0.28% |
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| Current Year Appreciation |
(39) |
(103) |
(71) |
(26) |
(13) |
(6) |
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| Ending Price |
(2,313) |
(2,451) |
(2,595) |
(2,699) |
(2,792) |
(2,883) |
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| Inflation Adjustment |
(35) |
(74) |
(78) |
(81) |
(84) |
(86) |
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| Inflation Adjusted End Price |
(2,348) |
(2,524) |
(2,673) |
(2,780) |
(2,876) |
(2,969) |
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| Price/Rent Ratio |
19.51 |
16.55 |
14.71 |
14.09 |
13.79 |
13.65 |
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| 15-year Average P/R Ratio |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
12.60 |
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| Home Correction Remaining |
-11.5% |
-3.0% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
2.2% |
0.0% |
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| Rent Correction Remaining |
26.5% |
17.6% |
11.1% |
6.8% |
3.2% |
0.0% |
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Lookup Selected |
5 |
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Yes |
1 |
Yes |
1 |
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Ratio of Home Prices to Annual Rents |
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No |
2 |
No |
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Price (in thousands) |
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Correction Components |
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June 2007 |
Five-year projected |
June 2007 |
15-Year Average |
Correction |
Home Correction |
Rent Correction |
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| 1 |
Orlando, Florida |
1 |
$552 |
$343 |
23.8 |
14.9 |
-37.2% |
-37.9% |
-0.66% |
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| 2 |
Miami, Florida |
2 |
759 |
514 |
27.2 |
16.0 |
-41.1% |
-32.3% |
8.82% |
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| 3 |
East Bay, California |
3 |
1,562 |
1,078 |
50.9 |
31.6 |
-38.1% |
-31.0% |
7.11% |
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| 4 |
Tampa Florida |
4 |
444 |
320 |
21.4 |
14.5 |
-32.2% |
-27.9% |
4.27% |
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| 5 |
Baltimore, Maryland |
5 |
565 |
408 |
20.7 |
12.6 |
-39.1% |
-27.8% |
11.31% |
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| 6 |
Fort Lauderdale, Florida |
6 |
731 |
532 |
24.5 |
15.7 |
-35.9% |
-27.2% |
8.68% |
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| 7 |
Palm Beach County, Florida |
7 |
760 |
553 |
27.1 |
17.6 |
-35.1% |
-27.2% |
7.86% |
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| 8 |
Las Vegas, Nevada |
8 |
611 |
450 |
27.9 |
18.9 |
-32.3% |
-26.4% |
5.95% |
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| 9 |
Sacramento, California |
9 |
705 |
521 |
28.7 |
19.4 |
-32.2% |
-26.1% |
6.10% |
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| 10 |
Greater Washington D.C. |
10 |
856 |
641 |
26.0 |
15.9 |
-38.9% |
-25.1% |
13.78% |
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| 11 |
Los Angeles, California |
11 |
1,107 |
841 |
26.7 |
16.0 |
-40.3% |
-24.0% |
16.27% |
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| 12 |
Jacksonville, Florida |
12 |
393 |
299 |
20.1 |
14.3 |
-28.8% |
-23.9% |
4.88% |
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| 13 |
San Diego, California |
13 |
1,211 |
926 |
34.0 |
22.4 |
-34.2% |
-23.5% |
10.67% |
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| 14 |
Long Island, New York |
14 |
947 |
725 |
24.5 |
15.7 |
-36.1% |
-23.4% |
12.66% |
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| 15 |
Phoenix, Arizona |
15 |
521 |
399 |
21.5 |
14.0 |
-34.6% |
-23.4% |
11.18% |
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| 16 |
Charlotte, North Carolina |
16 |
406 |
313 |
26.2 |
18.2 |
-30.5% |
-22.9% |
7.59% |
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| 17 |
Norfolk, Virginia |
17 |
500 |
387 |
26.8 |
17.9 |
-33.3% |
-22.6% |
10.70% |
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| 18 |
Salt Lake City, Utah |
18 |
464 |
360 |
24.1 |
16.3 |
-32.7% |
-22.4% |
10.29% |
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| 19 |
Richmond, Virginia |
19 |
462 |
359 |
24.9 |
16.8 |
-32.3% |
-22.3% |
10.01% |
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| 20 |
Orange County, California |
20 |
1,419 |
1,104 |
36.2 |
24.3 |
-33.1% |
-22.2% |
10.90% |
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| 21 |
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
21 |
472 |
370 |
18.6 |
12.5 |
-33.2% |
-21.6% |
11.59% |
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| 22 |
Seattle, Washington |
22 |
854 |
687 |
38.0 |
23.3 |
-38.7% |
-19.6% |
19.14% |
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| 23 |
Portland, Oregon |
23 |
589 |
476 |
31.7 |
20.8 |
-34.3% |
-19.2% |
15.11% |
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| 24 |
North/Central, New Jersey |
24 |
607 |
512 |
20.6 |
14.4 |
-30.2% |
-15.7% |
14.55% |
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| 25 |
Inland Empire, California |
25 |
791 |
667 |
27.5 |
18.8 |
-31.6% |
-15.7% |
15.92% |
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| 26 |
Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
26 |
445 |
377 |
24.2 |
18.1 |
-25.0% |
-15.3% |
9.72% |
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| 27 |
San Jose, California |
27 |
1,669 |
1,419 |
42.5 |
27.2 |
-35.9% |
-15.0% |
20.92% |
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| 28 |
Raleigh, North Carolina |
28 |
447 |
381 |
26.8 |
19.4 |
-27.7% |
-14.8% |
12.93% |
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| 29 |
New York, New York |
29 |
1,100 |
950 |
17.8 |
11.7 |
-34.6% |
-13.6% |
20.96% |
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| 30 |
San Antonio, Texas |
30 |
302 |
262 |
17.7 |
13.5 |
-23.6% |
-13.2% |
10.35% |
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| 31 |
Atlanta, Georgia |
31 |
349 |
305 |
19.5 |
14.8 |
-24.0% |
-12.6% |
11.39% |
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| 32 |
Hartford, Connecticut |
32 |
484 |
433 |
18.7 |
14.9 |
-20.0% |
-10.5% |
9.46% |
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| 33 |
San Francisco, California |
33 |
1,732 |
1,568 |
38.2 |
27.4 |
-28.3% |
-9.5% |
18.83% |
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| 34 |
Honolulu, Hawaii |
34 |
1,314 |
1,204 |
35.2 |
25.5 |
-27.4% |
-8.4% |
19.03% |
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| 35 |
Nashville, Tennessee |
35 |
367 |
342 |
26.8 |
20.5 |
-23.8% |
-6.8% |
16.99% |
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| 36 |
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
36 |
256 |
240 |
15.5 |
12.7 |
-17.9% |
-6.3% |
11.65% |
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| 37 |
Denver, Colorado |
37 |
502 |
474 |
24.4 |
19.1 |
-21.7% |
-5.6% |
16.12% |
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| 38 |
Memphis, Tennessee |
38 |
283 |
269 |
21.5 |
18.1 |
-15.9% |
-4.9% |
10.95% |
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| 39 |
Boston, Massachusetts |
39 |
834 |
793 |
23.2 |
18.0 |
-22.4% |
-4.9% |
17.48% |
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| 40 |
Austin, Texas |
40 |
363 |
347 |
19.1 |
16.3 |
-14.5% |
-4.4% |
10.09% |
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| 41 |
Chicago, Illinois |
41 |
574 |
550 |
22.7 |
18.3 |
-19.7% |
-4.2% |
15.52% |
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| 42 |
Minneapolis, Minnesota |
42 |
448 |
434 |
19.3 |
15.5 |
-19.8% |
-3.1% |
16.68% |
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| 43 |
St. Louis, Missouri |
43 |
304 |
295 |
16.6 |
14.0 |
-15.7% |
-3.0% |
12.74% |
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| 44 |
New Orleans, Louisiana |
44 |
328 |
321 |
16.1 |
14.8 |
-8.1% |
-2.1% |
5.97% |
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| 45 |
Stamford, Connecticut |
45 |
988 |
968 |
26.4 |
22.0 |
-16.6% |
-2.0% |
14.58% |
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| 46 |
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
46 |
237 |
232 |
11.9 |
10.6 |
-10.9% |
-2.1% |
8.79% |
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| 47 |
Columbus, Ohio |
47 |
296 |
295 |
18.9 |
16.9 |
-10.4% |
-0.3% |
10.06% |
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| 48 |
Houston, Texas |
48 |
304 |
308 |
16.5 |
14.3 |
-13.4% |
1.3% |
14.72% |
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| 49 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas |
49 |
329 |
334 |
17.8 |
16.1 |
-9.4% |
1.5% |
10.92% |
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| 50 |
Greater Kansas City, Kansas |
50 |
309 |
314 |
16.8 |
14.8 |
-11.5% |
1.6% |
13.12% |
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| 51 |
Cincinnati, Ohio |
51 |
284 |
301 |
16.3 |
15.1 |
-6.9% |
6.0% |
12.89% |
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| 52 |
Detroit, Michigan |
52 |
201 |
215 |
10.3 |
10.9 |
5.8% |
7.0% |
1.17% |
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| 53 |
Indianapolis, Indiana |
53 |
244 |
262 |
15.6 |
14.9 |
-5.0% |
7.4% |
12.38% |
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| 54 |
Cleveland, Ohio |
54 |
249 |
273 |
13.2 |
14.3 |
8.5% |
9.6% |
1.14% |
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| 55 |
AVERAGE |
55 |
$626 |
$523 |
23.9 |
17.3 |
-27.7% |
-16.4% |
11.60% |
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