Zoho Sheet - 5-Year Home & Rent Correction Calculator

Instruction _ Credits

Instructions & Credits


Analysis Sheet
1. Select the Metro Area with drop drown.
2. Select to use the provided home price or your own home price by selecting "Yes" or "No"
	*The provided home price is approximately double the local median price (upscale home).
	*If you select "No", enter desired home price in cell B8.
3. Enter estimated inflation rate in cell B9.
4. Enter estimated mortgage rate in cell B10.
5. Enter term for a fixed rate mortgage (in years) in cell B11.
6. Enter "Spread of Correction in cells E7:E12
	*The spread of correction is the portion of the total correction per year
	*The total of the spread of correction should equal 100% unless you want to be bullish or bearish.

Credits
This spreadsheet was created by Kevin, author of the Baltimore Housing Bubble
http://bubblemore.blogspot.com

Data is based off of Shawn Tully's article How Low Can They Go?, in the November 12, 2007 issue of Fortune Magazine
Shawn Tully's sources of data are: Fortune Analysis, Moody's Economy.com, PPR, NAR

Use of this spreadsheet is free without warranty or guarantee of forward-looking statements and/or market conditions.
By no means will this constitute as an offer of advice.
If you plan on using this spread sheet, please credit accordingly.

Analysis

Baltimore, Maryland
5 Year Home and Rent Correction
			* BH = Bach Half (Jul 1 - Dec 31)
			* FH = Front Half (Jan 1 - Jun 30)

Assumptions			Spread of Correction
Use Provided Home Price? Yes/No	Yes		2007 BH	15.0%
June 2007 Price	600,000		2008	40.0%
Inflation Rate	3.0%		2009	27.5%
Mortgage Rate	6.5%		2010	10.0%
Years Fixed	30		2011	5.0%
Home Correction Component	-27.8%		2012 FH	2.5%
Rental Correction Component	11.3%		Should Equal 100% Missing 0.0%
Price/Rent Ratio	20.70


Home Price Change	2007 BH	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012 FH
Beginning Price	565,000	541,450	478,650	435,475	419,775	411,925
Percent of Correction	-4.17%	-11.12%	-7.64%	-2.78%	-1.39%	-0.69%
Current Year Correction	(23,550)	(62,800)	(43,175)	(15,700)	(7,850)	(3,925)
Ending Price	541,450	478,650	435,475	419,775	411,925	408,000
Monthly Mortgage Payment	(3,422)	(3,025)	(2,752)	(2,653)	(2,604)	(2,579)

Rent Change	2007 BH	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012 FH
Beginning Price	(2,275)	(2,313)	(2,416)	(2,487)	(2,513)	(2,525)
Percent of Correction	1.70%	4.52%	3.11%	1.13%	0.57%	0.28%
Current Year Appreciation	(39)	(103)	(71)	(26)	(13)	(6)
Ending Price	(2,313)	(2,416)	(2,487)	(2,513)	(2,525)	(2,532)

Price/Rent Ratio	19.51	16.51	14.59	13.92	13.59	13.43
15-year Average P/R Ratio	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60
Home Correction Remaining	-24.6%	-14.8%	-6.3%	-2.8%	-1.0%	0.0%
Rent Correction Remaining	9.5%	4.8%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%



















Home Price Change (Inflation Adjusted)	2007 BH	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012 FH
Beginning Price	565,000	549,572	501,375	471,946	469,933	475,946
Percent of Correction	-4.17%	-11.12%	-7.64%	-2.78%	-1.39%	-0.69%
Current Year Correction	(23,550)	(62,800)	(43,175)	(15,700)	(7,850)	(3,925)
Ending Price	541,450	486,772	458,200	456,246	462,083	472,021
Inflation Adjustment	8,122	14,603	13,746	13,687	13,862	14,161
Inflation Adjusted End Price	549,572	501,375	471,946	469,933	475,946	486,181
Monthly Mortgage Payment	(3,474)	(3,169)	(2,983)	(2,970)	(3,008)	(3,073)

Rent Change (Inflation Adjusted)	2007 BH	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012 FH
Beginning Price	(2,275)	(2,348)	(2,524)	(2,673)	(2,780)	(2,876)
Percent of Correction	1.70%	4.52%	3.11%	1.13%	0.57%	0.28%
Current Year Appreciation	(39)	(103)	(71)	(26)	(13)	(6)
Ending Price	(2,313)	(2,451)	(2,595)	(2,699)	(2,792)	(2,883)
Inflation Adjustment	(35)	(74)	(78)	(81)	(84)	(86)
Inflation Adjusted End Price	(2,348)	(2,524)	(2,673)	(2,780)	(2,876)	(2,969)

Price/Rent Ratio	19.51	16.55	14.71	14.09	13.79	13.65
15-year Average P/R Ratio	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60	12.60
Home Correction Remaining	-11.5%	-3.0%	3.0%	3.5%	2.2%	0.0%
Rent Correction Remaining	26.5%	17.6%	11.1%	6.8%	3.2%	0.0%

Lookups

	Lookup Selected	5								Yes	1	Yes	1
					Ratio of Home Prices to Annual Rents					No	2	No
			Price (in thousands)				Correction Components
			June 2007	Five-year projected	June 2007	15-Year Average	Correction	Home Correction	Rent Correction

1	Orlando, Florida	1	$552	$343	23.8	14.9	-37.2%	-37.9%	-0.66%
2	Miami, Florida	2	759	514	27.2	16.0	-41.1%	-32.3%	8.82%
3	East Bay, California	3	1,562	1,078	50.9	31.6	-38.1%	-31.0%	7.11%
4	Tampa Florida	4	444	320	21.4	14.5	-32.2%	-27.9%	4.27%
5	Baltimore, Maryland	5	565	408	20.7	12.6	-39.1%	-27.8%	11.31%
6	Fort Lauderdale, Florida	6	731	532	24.5	15.7	-35.9%	-27.2%	8.68%
7	Palm Beach County, Florida	7	760	553	27.1	17.6	-35.1%	-27.2%	7.86%
8	Las Vegas, Nevada	8	611	450	27.9	18.9	-32.3%	-26.4%	5.95%
9	Sacramento, California	9	705	521	28.7	19.4	-32.2%	-26.1%	6.10%
10	Greater Washington D.C.	10	856	641	26.0	15.9	-38.9%	-25.1%	13.78%
11	Los Angeles, California	11	1,107	841	26.7	16.0	-40.3%	-24.0%	16.27%
12	Jacksonville, Florida	12	393	299	20.1	14.3	-28.8%	-23.9%	4.88%
13	San Diego, California	13	1,211	926	34.0	22.4	-34.2%	-23.5%	10.67%
14	Long Island, New York	14	947	725	24.5	15.7	-36.1%	-23.4%	12.66%
15	Phoenix, Arizona	15	521	399	21.5	14.0	-34.6%	-23.4%	11.18%
16	Charlotte, North Carolina	16	406	313	26.2	18.2	-30.5%	-22.9%	7.59%
17	Norfolk, Virginia	17	500	387	26.8	17.9	-33.3%	-22.6%	10.70%
18	Salt Lake City, Utah	18	464	360	24.1	16.3	-32.7%	-22.4%	10.29%
19	Richmond, Virginia	19	462	359	24.9	16.8	-32.3%	-22.3%	10.01%
20	Orange County, California	20	1,419	1,104	36.2	24.3	-33.1%	-22.2%	10.90%
21	Philadelphia, Pennsylvania	21	472	370	18.6	12.5	-33.2%	-21.6%	11.59%
22	Seattle, Washington	22	854	687	38.0	23.3	-38.7%	-19.6%	19.14%
23	Portland, Oregon	23	589	476	31.7	20.8	-34.3%	-19.2%	15.11%
24	North/Central, New Jersey	24	607	512	20.6	14.4	-30.2%	-15.7%	14.55%
25	Inland Empire, California	25	791	667	27.5	18.8	-31.6%	-15.7%	15.92%
26	Milwaukee, Wisconsin	26	445	377	24.2	18.1	-25.0%	-15.3%	9.72%
27	San Jose, California	27	1,669	1,419	42.5	27.2	-35.9%	-15.0%	20.92%
28	Raleigh, North Carolina	28	447	381	26.8	19.4	-27.7%	-14.8%	12.93%
29	New York, New York	29	1,100	950	17.8	11.7	-34.6%	-13.6%	20.96%
30	San Antonio, Texas	30	302	262	17.7	13.5	-23.6%	-13.2%	10.35%
31	Atlanta, Georgia	31	349	305	19.5	14.8	-24.0%	-12.6%	11.39%
32	Hartford, Connecticut	32	484	433	18.7	14.9	-20.0%	-10.5%	9.46%
33	San Francisco, California	33	1,732	1,568	38.2	27.4	-28.3%	-9.5%	18.83%
34	Honolulu, Hawaii	34	1,314	1,204	35.2	25.5	-27.4%	-8.4%	19.03%
35	Nashville, Tennessee	35	367	342	26.8	20.5	-23.8%	-6.8%	16.99%
36	Oklahoma City, Oklahoma	36	256	240	15.5	12.7	-17.9%	-6.3%	11.65%
37	Denver, Colorado	37	502	474	24.4	19.1	-21.7%	-5.6%	16.12%
38	Memphis, Tennessee	38	283	269	21.5	18.1	-15.9%	-4.9%	10.95%
39	Boston, Massachusetts	39	834	793	23.2	18.0	-22.4%	-4.9%	17.48%
40	Austin, Texas	40	363	347	19.1	16.3	-14.5%	-4.4%	10.09%
41	Chicago, Illinois	41	574	550	22.7	18.3	-19.7%	-4.2%	15.52%
42	Minneapolis, Minnesota	42	448	434	19.3	15.5	-19.8%	-3.1%	16.68%
43	St. Louis, Missouri	43	304	295	16.6	14.0	-15.7%	-3.0%	12.74%
44	New Orleans, Louisiana	44	328	321	16.1	14.8	-8.1%	-2.1%	5.97%
45	Stamford, Connecticut	45	988	968	26.4	22.0	-16.6%	-2.0%	14.58%
46	Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania	46	237	232	11.9	10.6	-10.9%	-2.1%	8.79%
47	Columbus, Ohio	47	296	295	18.9	16.9	-10.4%	-0.3%	10.06%
48	Houston, Texas	48	304	308	16.5	14.3	-13.4%	1.3%	14.72%
49	Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas	49	329	334	17.8	16.1	-9.4%	1.5%	10.92%
50	Greater Kansas City, Kansas	50	309	314	16.8	14.8	-11.5%	1.6%	13.12%
51	Cincinnati, Ohio	51	284	301	16.3	15.1	-6.9%	6.0%	12.89%
52	Detroit, Michigan	52	201	215	10.3	10.9	5.8%	7.0%	1.17%
53	Indianapolis, Indiana	53	244	262	15.6	14.9	-5.0%	7.4%	12.38%
54	Cleveland, Ohio	54	249	273	13.2	14.3	8.5%	9.6%	1.14%
55	AVERAGE	55	$626	$523	23.9	17.3	-27.7%	-16.4%	11.60%