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CHOOSING THE RIGHT VALUATION MODEL |
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This program is designed to help in choosing the right model to |
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use for any occassion. |
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Inputs to the model |
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Level of Earnings |
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(in currency) |
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Are your earnings positive ? |
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Yes |
(Yes or No) |
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If the earnings are positive and normal, please enter the following: |
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What is the expected inflation rate in the economy? |
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3.00% |
(in percent) |
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What is the expected real growth rate in the economy? |
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2.00% |
(in percent) |
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What is the expected growth rate in earnings (revenues) for this firm in the near future? |
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15.00% |
(in percent) |
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Does this firm have a significant and sustainable advantage over competitors? |
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Yes |
(Yes or No) |
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Differential Advantages: High growth comes from a firm earning excess returns on its projects, which in turn comes from some differential advantage |
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possessed by the firm over its competitors. This differential advantage can be legal (as is the case with legal monopolies like telecom), or technological, |
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or a strong brand name (as is the case with many consumer product firms) or economies of scale. The question that is being asked relates not just to |
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the existing differential advantage but also to the future. |
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If the earnings are negative, please enter the following: |
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Are the earnings negative because the firm is in a cyclical business ? |
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(Yes or No) |
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Are the earnings negative because of a one-time or temporary occurrence? |
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(Yes or No) |
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Are the earnings negative because the firm has too much debt? |
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(Yes or No) |
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If yes, is there a strong likelihood of bankruptcy? |
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(Yes or No) |
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Are the earnings negative because the firm is just starting up? |
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(Yes or No) |
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Financial Leverage |
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What is the current debt ratio (in market value terms) ? |
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4.00% |
(in percent) |
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Is this debt ratio expected to change significantly ? |
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Yes |
(Yes or No) |
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Dividend Policy |
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What did the firm pay out as dividends in the current year? |
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$100.00 |
(in currency) |
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Can you estimate capital expenditures and working capital requirements? |
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Yes |
(Yes or No) |
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Enter the following inputs (from the current year) for computing FCFE |
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Net Income (NI) |
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$200.00 |
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Depreciation and Amortization |
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$50.00 |
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Capital Spending (Including acquisitions) |
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$100.00 |
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∆ Non-cash Working Capital (∆WC) |
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$25.00 |
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FCFE = NI - (Capital Spending - Depreciation) *(1- Debt Ratio) - ∆ WC (1-Debt Ratio) = |
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$128.00 |
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OUTPUT FROM THE MODEL |
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Based upon the inputs you have entered, the right valuation model for this firm is: |
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Type of Model (DCF Model, Option Pricing Model): |
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Discounted CF Model |
! If option pricing model, first do a DCF valuation |
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Level of Earnings to use in model (Current, Normalized): |
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Current Earnings |
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Cashflows that should be discounted (Dividends, FCFE, FCFF) : |
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FCFF (Value firm) |
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Length of Growth Period (10 or more, 5 to 10, less than 5) |
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10 or more years |
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Appropriate Growth Pattern (Stable, 2 stage, 3 stage): |
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Three-stage Growth |
! In an n-stage model, you will estimate target operating margins (if valuing the firm) |
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or net margins (if valuing equity) and revenue growth each year. |
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