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PREDICT THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
By Jay Cost
Created 3/28/08, Updated 5/07/2008

INSTRUCTIONS
(1) Alter the ORANGE CELLS to make your predictions.
(2) Change "Expected Turnout" and "Clinton Margin of Victory" per your predictions.
(3) Alter Puerto Rico's "Expected Votes" instead of its "Expected Turnout."
(4) YELLOW CELLS show effect of your adjustments.
(5) Look under "Nationwide Results" to see Obama's lead after your adjustments.
(6) Do NOT modify YELLOW or RED cells, or else the formulas will be disrupted.
(7) See "Useful Data" below as guide for "Clinton Margin of Victory."
(8) Initial expected turnout values based on previous contests. See "Useful Data" below.
(9) Initial "Clinton Margin of Victory" values meant only to be reasonble, pro-Clinton estimates that dispel the notion of "Over."


STATEWIDE PREDICTIONS
State	Eligibility	Kerry Votes	Expected Turnout	Expected Votes	Clinton Margin of Victory	Net Clinton Votes
West Virginia	Open	326,541	94.0%	306,949	40.0%	122,779
Kentucky	Closed	712,733	78.5%	559,495	30.0%	167,849
Oregon	Closed	943,163	78.5%	740,383	-5.5%	-40,721
Puerto Rico	Open	N/A	N/A	1,000,000	25.0%	250,000
Montana	Open	173,710	94.0%	163,287	-10.0%	-16,329
South Dakota	Closed	149,244	78.5%	117,157	-10.0%	-11,716
				Total Net Clinton Votes		471,863

NATIONWIDE PREDICTIONS
Manner of Counting Vote				Current Obama Margin	Predicted Obama Margin
Exclude FL, MI, Caucus Estimates.^				710,364	238,501

Exclude FL, MI. Include Caucus Estimates. Do Not Use WA Primary.				820,586	348,723
Exclude FL, MI. Include Caucus Estimates. Use WA Primary.				769,948	298,085

Exclude MI and Caucus Estimates. Include FL.				415,592	-56,271

Exclude MI. Include FL and Caucus Estimates. Do Not Use WA Primary.				525,814	53,951
Exclude MI. Include FL and Caucus Estimates. Use WA Primary.				475,176	3,313

Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimates. No MI Votes To Obama.				87,283	-384,580
Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimates. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.^^				325,451	-146,412
Include MI and FL. Exclude Caucus Estimates. MI Reestimate Per Exit Poll.^^^				362,631	-109,232

Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Do Not Use WA primary. No MI Votes To Obama.				197,505	-274,358
Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Do Not Use WA primary. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.				435,673	-36,190
Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Do Not Use WA primary. MI Reestimate Per Exit Poll.				472,853	990

Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Use WA Primary. No MI Votes To Obama.				146,867	-324,996
Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Use WA Primary. Unaffiliated MI Votes To Obama.				385,035	-86,828
Include MI, FL, Caucus Estimates. Use WA Primary. MI Reestimate Per Exit Poll.				422,215	-49,648
^ - "Caucus estimates" are for IA, NV, WA, ME caucuses EXCEPT when noted that WA primary is used. In that case, WA caucus results are replaced with WA primary results.

^^ - In this type of count, all MI voters who were "Uncommitted" are allocated to Obama.
^^^ - MI primary reestimated by multiplying the share of exit poll respondents who would have supported Clinton (46%) and Obama (35%) on a full ballot by the total number of MI Democratic primary voters.


USEFUL DATA*
State	Date of Contest	Eligibility**	Total Primary Voters	2004 Kerry Votes	Turnout***	Result****
New Hampshire	1/3	Open	287,557	340,511	84.4%	Clinton +2.6%

Michigan	1/15	Open	594,398	2,479,183	24.0%	N/A

South Carolina	1/26	Open	532,151	661,699	80.4%	Obama +28.9%

Florida	1/29	Closed	1,737,197	3,583,544	48.5%	Clinton +16.9%

Alabama	2/5	Open	536,626	693,933	77.3%	Obama +14.4%
Arizona	2/5	Closed	455,635	893,524	44.6%	Clinton +8.0%
Arkansas	2/5	Open	314,234	469,953	66.6%	Clinton +43.8%
California	2/5	Open	5,066,993	6,745,485	69.7%	Clinton +8.3%
Connecticut	2/5	Closed	417,096	857,488	41.2%	Obama +4.0%
Delaware	2/5	Closed	96,374	200,152	48.2%	Obama +11.1%
Georgia	2/5	Open	1,060,851	1,366,149	77.7%	Obama +35.3%
Illinois	2/5	Open	2,038,614	2,891,550	69.7%	Obama +31.9%
Massachusetts	2/5	Open	1,246,628	1,803,800	69.1%	Clinton +15.5%
Missouri	2/5	Open	825,050	1,259,171	65.3%	Obama +1.4%
New Jersey	2/5	Open	1,119,768	1,911,430	58.6%	Clinton +9.9%
New Mexico	2/5	Closed	149,379	370,942	40.3%	Clinton +1.1%
New York	2/5	Closed	1,891,143	4,314,280	40.4%	Clinton +17.1%
Oklahoma	2/5	Closed	417,096	503,966	82.8%	Clinton +23.6%
Tennessee	2/5	Open	618,711	1,036,477	59.7%	Clinton +13.5%
Utah	2/5	Open	131,403	241,199	51.5%	Obama +17.6%

Louisiana	2/9	Closed	384,346	820,299	46.9%	Obama +21.8%

DC	2/12	Closed	123,994	202,970	61.1%	Obama +51.5%
Maryland	2/12	Closed	862,539	1,334,493	64.6%	Obama +24.9%
Virginia	2/12	Open	986,203	1,454,742	67.8%	Obama +28.2%

Washington (Non-Binding Primary)	2/19	Open	691,381	1,510,201	45.8%	Obama +5.6
Wisconsin	2/19	Open	1,113,753	1,489,504	74.6%	Obama +17.3

Ohio	3/4	Open	2,233,156	2,741,165	80.1%	Clinton +10.4%
Rhode Island	3/4	Open	186,439	259,760	70.9%	Clinton +18.0%
Texas	3/4	Open	2,861,924	2,832,704	99.5%	Clinton +3.5%
Vermont	3/4	Open	147,655	184,067	82.4%	Obama +20.7%

Mississippi	3/11	Open	434,071	457,766	89.9%	Obama +24.5%

Pennsylvania	4/22	Closed	2,306,682	2,938,095	78.5%	Clinton +9.2%

Indiana	5/7	Open	1,274,993	969,011	132.6%	Clinton+1.0%
North Carolina	5/7	Open	1,563,958	1,525,849	102.5%	Obama +14.3%
* - 2008 turnout data from The Green Papers. 2008 Clinton/Obama margin of victory from RealClearPolitics. 2004 Data from the 2006 Almanac of American Politics.

** - "Open" is defined as either "Open" or "Modified." See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Definitions.html
***- Turnout defined as 2008 primary vote as share of 2004 Kerry general election vote.
**** - Results reflect victory of Clinton over Obama or Obama over Clinton among whole field. Note that as the number of other candidates in the field increases, the size of this number likely decreases. Importantly, John Edwards received non-negligible vote totals through Super Tuesday. So, adjustments might be necessary to compare these states to post-Edwards states. For instance, among Clinton or Obama voters in Tennessee, Clinton won by 14.3%.

Choose Your Own Primary Results